2010 Firesale Watch: Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the title, you might think I am taking a cue from Phoenix radio blowhards who still pine for the days of Randy Johnson and Luis Gonzalez. Let’s get this straight: the DBacks are clearly not a 70-92 team. The 2009 season had barely begun before Arizona lost its #1 starter (Brandon Webb) and best on-base threat (Conor Jackson). Very few teams would have performed well after losing such a combo. However, the most common explanations for losses were cries that “AZ has too many sluggers” and “the DBacks bullpen is shaky,” a classic diagnosis of the symptoms of the problem, rather than the problem simpliciter.

The DBacks should be good this year if they avoid injuries. Yet, in an improved NL West, “good” might only be good for third or fourth place. This reality certainly magnifies the tragedy of the 2008 DBacks’ late-season collapse to the Dodgers, since the extra playoff revenue would certainly have helped the 2009 DBacks construct a team that could have coped better with injury problems. It also shows that the DBacks as currently operated – a mid-market, mid-payroll team – should be thinking about rebuilding, whether or not they make the playoffs. The current roster will soon get too expensive to maintain. Furthermore, the building blocks for a quick rebuild exist, in terms of above-replacement level talent on the major league bench and in AAA, and in the form of premium trade bait.

The DBacks will likely enter 2010 with a payroll around $80 million. Even if the team succeeds in finishing ahead of one of the NL West’s two 2009 playoff teams, the Dodgers and the Rockies, and the pitching-heavy Giants, they are unlikely to have the money to keep the team together going into 2011. To start, while the DBacks only have $25M in 2011 payroll commitments, those commitments are locked up in three players: Dan Haren, Chris Snyder and Chris Young. Assuming Webb rebounds to pre-2009 performance, he will likely get $15M or more per year on the free agent market. Edwin Jackson will likely made $10M in his final year of arbitration, and Adam LaRoche’s 2011 option is $11M. Add another $30M for Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Kelly Johnson and first-time eligibles Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds (expect a huge raise given his power numbers), and the team has spent $90M on 12 players.

Suppose the DBacks let LaRoche walk and replace him with AAA stud Brandon Allen. In that case, the DBacks would have to use that $9.5M ($11M – LaRoche’s $1.5M buyout for 2011) to fill out a bullpen left vacant by the expected free agency of closer Chad Qualls and anticipated set-up men Aaron Heilman and Bobby Howry. Even if the DBacks filled out roster spots 16-25 with minimum salary players, their payroll would be at least $95M in 2011, and likely over $110M for 2012, given contract and arbitration raises. Given the ownership’s stated goals of avoiding the massive debts of the 2001 championship team, and the lackluster ticket numbers at Chase Field the past few seasons, it is unlikely Arizona can hold such a payroll even if they make the playoffs.

You may wonder if Arizona’s fan support would plummet to Marlins-like levels if ownership sold away fan favorites. Perhaps this is true, but Arizona has the organizational depth to be decently competitive for a season or two while rebuilding, and be ready to welcome back front-runner fans by 2012. Looking at Dan Symborski’s 2010 ZIPS projections, the DBacks have several players on the bench or in the minors who have the potential to provide near league average production.* Jeff Bailey in LF, Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie in CF, Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu at 2B/SS/3B could all fill in suitably for traded veterans until fresh troops are available. So, Arizona is not looking at a Pittsburgh-like cycle of perpetual rebuilding.

Speaking of fresh troops, the DBacks should be able to get several good ones if they do start trading at mid-season. The prize would be Haren, a consistent, durable ace-level pitcher in his prime who is signed will below market value (less than $34M for the next 3 years) should net a Roy Halladay-like return. Although he is not an ace, another good season from Edwin Jackson will establish him as an above-average starter who can help any rotation without requiring a risky long-term contract commitment. While Reynolds and Montero have their detractors in the field, both are plus hitters for their position and will be arbitration-eligible for multiple seasons. They would be most valuable to teams looking to contend on a budget. Further down the list, Conor Jackson, Drew and Johnson could all be mid-season trade bait if their 2010 stats recover from 2009 lows to provide good production at arbitration rates. Looking long-term, Webb and Qualls could net Arizona several high 2011 draft picks if they are not traded and avoid an offer of arbitration.

While the Rockies and the Dodgers have been quiet and cheap this offseason, and the Giants have continued to fill out their everyday roster with mediocrity, all three possess talent equivalent or better to Arizona. Recalibrating for a run in 2012-2013, when franchise cornerstone Justin Upton can be complemented by current top prospects Jarrod Parker and Brandon Allen, as well as others acquired in the trades suggested above, makes a lot of baseball sense (and cents).

*Near league average production: at least a “Fair” defensive grade and an OPS+ within 5 units of average production for the given position on the ZIPS projections.